Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 01 2025 19:30:16 ACUS03 KWNS 011930 SWODY3 SPC AC 011929 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Kansas into the Edwards Plateau late Monday night. ....Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will be present across the southern Plains in advance of a eastward moving and intensifying upper-level trough. The trough, initially within the Great Basin, will eject into the central/southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning. A closed upper low will develop into the central High Plains with a strong mid-level jet stretching into central Texas, curving westward into the Trans-Pecos. Strong low-level wind fields will develop late Monday afternoon and through the evening/overnight. At least low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to reach into parts of central/eastern Oklahoma as this occurs. ....Southeast Kansas into southern Plains... Storm development is most likely to occur mid/late Monday night. Model guidance still shows some variability in the westward/northward progress of greater low-level moisture. Severe probabilities have been adjusted westward to account for trends in the ECMWF showing storm initiation west of the I-35 corridor. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be largely parallel to the surface trough/front. That said, confidence is reasonably high in a linear storm mode. The primary uncertainties will be the exact degree of surface based destabilization and where storms will initiate/become severe. Forecast soundings do show potential for near-surface to surface based storms, however. Strong low-level shear will certainly be conditionally favorable for damaging winds and embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. At present time the most conditionally favorable environment will exist somewhere from central/eastern Oklahoma into parts of North Texas. Into southeast Kansas, uncertainty in destabilization becomes greater. However, some severe risk may develop ahead of the surface low in south-central Kansas. Farther south, into the Edwards Plateau, initiation along the Pacific front becomes less certain given some warmer air aloft. Given at least a weak signal in the ECMWF for thunderstorms, probabilities have been adjusted southwestward to account for this potential. ...Wendt.. 03/01/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .