Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 01 2025 15:35:40

FOUS30 KWBC 011535
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1035 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Oklahoma...
A cold low progresses from the Great Basin into the High Plains of
CO by Tuesday morning. This leads to the formation of a CO cyclone
late Monday which advances eastward across southwest KS. Warm air=20
advection ahead of the cyclone is expected to advect 500-1000 J/kg=20
of MU CAPE and precipitable water values of 1.25"+ by Tuesday=20
morning into southeast OK. Inflow at 850 hPa accelerates past 50=20
kts. Since the airmass in the wake of its cold front is more dry=20
than cold, instability lurks in its "cold sector" as well. NAM=20
parameters suggest organized convection should occur either in the=20
form/mode of supercells or a squall line -- assuming convection is
around for 4+ hours and can form a cold pool to force forward=20
propagation -- somewhere near southeast OK. For the moment, only=20
the 00z Canadian Regional model brings rainfall amounts over 1.5"=20
(local spots of 3-4" near the Red River Valley of the South). The=20
region has been dry over the past week, allowing much of the=20
ArkLaTex and southeast OK (outside of the Ouachita mountains) to=20
not be particularly sensitive to heavy rainfall should the 00z=20
Canadian verify. While the risk of excessive rainfall is non- zero,
believe it still remains under the 5 percent threshold for the=20
time being.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-t0z-ioUXT920L5id9ntsWiKd6GwJrX5MOEBDErUitr=
IGifVzUdxrCl7RbpYUq__vtG2RHiiRQJKYmbYwo3nYI37hg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-t0z-ioUXT920L5id9ntsWiKd6GwJrX5MOEBDErUitr=
IGifVzUdxrCl7RbpYUq__vtG2RHiiRQJKYmbYwo3QBTimd0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_-t0z-ioUXT920L5id9ntsWiKd6GwJrX5MOEBDErUitr=
IGifVzUdxrCl7RbpYUq__vtG2RHiiRQJKYmbYwo3iT7gfMY$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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