Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 01 2025 08:18:12 ACUS03 KWNS 010818 SWODY3 SPC AC 010817 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ....Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ...Kerr.. 03/01/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .