Subj : TROPDISC: Tropical Weathe To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Feb 28 2025 07:53:00 576 AXNT20 KNHC 281007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Feb 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 05N between 17W and 31W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving through the northern Gulf, extending from 29N83W southwestward to 22N98W. No deep convection is occurring with this front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft prevail across much of the Gulf, with the exception of the SE Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh NE winds prevail. For the forecast, the front will continue to move SE of the Gulf today, followed by moderate northerly winds. These winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds across the area. Southeast winds are expected to increase over the central and western Gulf on Sun. Another cold front is expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf waters on Sun, followed by stronger high pressure that will build southward across the eastern Gulf into early next week. A tight gradient will lead to fresh northeast to east winds over the southeastern Gulf early next week. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge located north of Bermuda extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, and a 1008 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Colombia. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong northeast winds in the south-central basin just offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft in the northwestern basin. For the forecast, strong NE winds offshore Colombia will pulse each night through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through early next week. Mostly fresh NE winds are forecast to pulse in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N57W to 25N65W, where it transitions to a trough to 21N68W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west of 60W and N of 20N) is under the influence of a 1032 mb high pressure centered NE of Bermuda and an attendant ridge extending southwestward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in these waters. For the remainder of the basin, fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft prevail, with the highest seas occurring south of 20N between 25W and 55W. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. The next cold front will move into our offshore waters in the W Atlantic today. The front will reach from 31N68W to 27N73W this afternoon, then it will weaken near southeastern Bahamas tonight. The front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 27N today. High pressure will settle over the western part of the area Sat, with generally calm conditions over most of the area. Another cold front will move across the western and central forecast waters on Sun, reaching the eastern part of the area early next week, where it will stall. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected south of about 27N and west of the front starting Mon. $$ ERA --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .