Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 28 2025 05:27:53

ACUS01 KWNS 280527
SWODY1
SPC AC 280526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are very low Friday.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern is not expected to favor appreciable
moistening/destabilization through 01/12z as a dominant upper trough
settles south across the Great Lakes/OH Valley region. This feature
will not prove favorable for Gulf moisture to advance inland as
west-northwesterly flow should prevail through the period.

Farther west across southern CA, a notable upper low is forecast to
dig southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, as a strong 500mb
speed max translates toward the northern Baja Peninsula. While
profiles will cool, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, scant
moisture should be noted with this system across inland southern CA.
Forecast soundings suggest the most-buoyant parcels will struggle to
exhibit enough instability to warrant any meaningful risk for deep
convection capable of generating lightning. For these reasons
thunderstorms will not be forecast today.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/28/2025

$$

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