Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 28 2025 05:02:53 ACUS02 KWNS 280502 SWODY2 SPC AC 280500 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that an amplified split flow, characterized by generally high mid/upper heights, will be maintained across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period. Within this regime, it appears that an initially slow moving mid-level low near the southern California/northern Baja coast will accelerate inland across the Southwest Saturday through Saturday night, as a more prominent short wave trough digs toward the northern and central California coast. However, there remains notable spread among the various model output concerning how rapidly the lead perturbation transitions to an open wave, and how soon a closed low develops within the trailing perturbation. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will be maintained across much of eastern North America, reinforced by a number of digging short wave perturbations, as far south as the northeastern Gulf Basin through Florida Peninsula. This is forecast to be accompanied by substantive further lower/mid-tropospheric drying across much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. In response to the evolving upstream pattern, a developing southerly return flow may contribute to some lower/mid-tropospheric moistening east of the Texas Big Bend toward deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, this is likely to be capped by relatively warm and dry layers farther aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected to generally prevail across much of the remainder of the U.S., as well, with little appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ....Southern Great Basin/Southwest... There remains sizable spread among the various model output concerning the track of the modest mid-level cold core of the inland advancing lead short wave trough. Given initially dry conditions, and limited moisture return as it progresses inland, latest guidance indicates only very weak destabilization beneath the coldest mid-level temperatures. Based on NAM/RAP forecast soundings, any convection which may become capable of producing lightning probably will need forcing augmented by the higher terrain. While a brief weak thunderstorm or two might not be out of the question across the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona late Saturday afternoon, NCEP SREF and HREF calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently suggest that 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities might be to high. ...Kerr.. 02/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .