Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 27 2025 19:56:54 ACUS01 KWNS 271956 SWODY1 SPC AC 271954 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ....20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ...Weinman.. 02/27/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ....Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ....Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .