Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 27 2025 16:30:04

ACUS01 KWNS 271630
SWODY1
SPC AC 271628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts
of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia.
Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and
early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

....Upper Ohio Valley...
Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will
overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper
trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The
airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and
low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface
dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination
of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft
and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak
MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late
this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly
strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly
boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current
expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with
the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary
surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened
lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of
producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail.
Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH,
northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of
thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated.

....Georgia into the Carolinas...
Modest instability should develop later today across parts of
central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing
mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance
for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold
front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds
may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal
and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall
severe potential.

...Gleason/Supinie.. 02/27/2025

$$

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