Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 27 2025 05:40:31

ACUS01 KWNS 270540
SWODY1
SPC AC 270538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and
Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia.

....Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia...

Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging across the
upper MS Valley, and will extend across lower MI/IN region by 18z,
before advancing into the middle Atlantic by late evening. Very cold
temperatures are noted with this feature, and profiles should
cool/steepen during the day as a secondary weak surface boundary
advances southeast across the OH Valley. Latest model guidance
suggests surface heating will aid steepening low-level lapse rates,
and 0-3km values will likely approach 8-9 C/km by mid afternoon,
despite surface temperatures only warming into the mid 40s-50s. As a
result, forecast soundings yield several hundred J/kg SBCAPE within
a strongly sheared west-northwesterly flow regime. Current thinking
is scattered low-topped thunderstorms will evolve along the boundary
by mid afternoon, then propagate southeast toward the higher terrain
of the central Appalachians. While this activity will evolve within
a weak-instability air mass, gusty winds and small hail may be noted
with the more organized updrafts. At this time it appears the
prospect for severe winds and hail are too low to warrant
probabilities.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 02/27/2025

$$

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