Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 26 2025 16:33:30

ACUS01 KWNS 261632
SWODY1
SPC AC 261630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley this afternoon and evening. Organized severe thunderstorms
appear unlikely.

....Mid-South into the Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid
MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface
low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity,
with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of
the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front
will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface
dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures
associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a
narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of
the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the
MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear
will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization,
current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain
low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic
environment.

...Gleason/Weinman.. 02/26/2025

$$

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