Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 25 2025 20:00:52

ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains
and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated.

....20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward
expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO.
Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high
terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted
over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous
discussion below.

...Weinman.. 02/25/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/

....Northern and Central Plains...
Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and
central Plains this afternoon and evening.  Relatively dry low-level
conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero.
However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and
sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk
of a few lightning flashes.  It is unclear whether any areas will
see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage,
but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most
confident.

$$

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