Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 25 2025 05:29:19

ACUS01 KWNS 250529
SWODY1
SPC AC 250527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the lower
48 States today.

....Discussion...

Strong upper trough is moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest
Coast early this morning. This feature will deamplify a bit as it
digs southeast across the northern Rockies into the central
Plains/upper MS Valley region by the end of the period. As this
short wave shifts inland, surface pressures will build over the
northern Rockies/Great Basin forcing a cold front into the eastern
Dakotas-central NE-central CO by 26/00z. Large-scale forcing ahead
of this feature will contribute to mid-level moistening within a
steep lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings along/near the
frontal zone suggest weak mid-level buoyancy, likely sufficient for
at least shallow elevated convection. While a few of the strongest
updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge,
current thinking is the probability for thunderstorms is too low to
warrant a risk this period.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 02/25/2025

$$

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