Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 25 2025 00:39:46 FOUS30 KWBC 250038 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 738 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ....Pacific Northwest... No changes for this update across the Pacific Northwest as the 18Z HREF guidance showing a similar output to the previous cycle. One=20 reason for maintaining the Slight Risk areas across the Coastal=20 Ranges and southern Washington Cascades is due to antecedent=20 rainfall over the past couple of days and above average soil=20 moisture/elevated rivers and creeks. Another is a moderate chance=20 for hourly rainfall of 0.5"+ to briefly impact the Cascades before snow levels fall, which are where the Slight Risk areas were=20 depicted. Robust low level onshore flow with 850 mb winds of 70-80=20 kt from far northern Oregon into southern/central Washington will=20 foster the heavy rainfall.=20 ....Southeast Florida... Based on the 18Z HREF and the rainfall that occurred earlier in Key West, the Marginal Risk was extended throughout the Keys and farther up the coast into east-central Florida. Low-level onshore=20 flow coupled with increasing moisture and sufficient instability wafting in off the Gulf Stream and Florida Straits to support=20 hourly totals to 3" and local amounts to 5". In the Keys this is in the very near term, while for east-central Florida, it is towards 12z Tuesday. Roth/Otto Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lEOhbec6Fr6A_7ynBpHLazoQsyAquNVrbDh_UDRg4da= LEKIagVLAzAVJcIkGZHc9M5sKejmhyFPe2EDbn-Maqy-whY$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lEOhbec6Fr6A_7ynBpHLazoQsyAquNVrbDh_UDRg4da= LEKIagVLAzAVJcIkGZHc9M5sKejmhyFPe2EDbn-MRO3W2EU$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lEOhbec6Fr6A_7ynBpHLazoQsyAquNVrbDh_UDRg4da= LEKIagVLAzAVJcIkGZHc9M5sKejmhyFPe2EDbn-MOmDHR_k$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .