Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 22 2025 16:15:19

ACUS01 KWNS 221614
SWODY1
SPC AC 221613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight.

....TX/LA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across
the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX.
Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave
will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of
scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the
mid/upper TX and LA coasts.  After midnight, a more pronounced
shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep
convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well.
Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a
risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this
scenario.

...Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025

$$

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