Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 22 2025 05:51:23

ACUS01 KWNS 220550
SWODY1
SPC AC 220548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few
storms could produce at least small hail.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and
eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the
southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern
Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the
Sabine Valley into Sunday morning.

While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated
instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly
850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms
should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and
spread eastward across LA overnight.

MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from
evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through
the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree
of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool
sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does
develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe
limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation
shield.

...Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025

$$

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