Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 21 2025 19:58:14

ACUS01 KWNS 211958
SWODY1
SPC AC 211956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today
through tonight.

....20Z Update...
A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today
across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning
flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by
sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the
12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough
moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this
afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no
general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very
sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this
regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of
south-central TX to the middle TX coast.

...Dean.. 02/21/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/

An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period.

$$

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