Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 20 2025 05:19:44

ACUS01 KWNS 200519
SWODY1
SPC AC 200518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

....Discussion...
It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive
across North America through this period.  This is likely to include
the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening
embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic
Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday.  Upstream,
the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is
forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through
southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while
broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the
Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies.

Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface
cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through
northern Atlantic Seaboard.  However, expansive, seasonably cold
surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the
Rockies, likely will be slow to modify.

To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more
moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most
areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent
overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may
contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon.
While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become
conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to
which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent
or greater thunder probabilities.

...Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025

$$

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