Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 19 2025 08:54:07

ACUS48 KWNS 190854
SWOD48
SPC AC 190852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Persistent surface high pressure across portions of the Southeast
and Gulf Coast regions will result in a dearth of boundary layer
moisture through at least Day 6/Mon. This will preclude much
potential for thunderstorms.

By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Tue-Wed, an upper ridge
over the western U.S. will weaken as it shifts east toward the
Plains, owing to an upper shortwave trough developing southeast
across the Rockies. This will result in lee low development across
the southern Plains. Forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement
even at this extended range that a surface low will move from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity. In response, southerly
low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport modest
moisture northward ahead of a cold front from the ArkLaTex into the
Deep South by Day 8/Wed. While severe potential appears limited by
weak moisture return, thunderstorm potential is likely to increase
late Day 7/Tue into Day 8/Wed.

...Leitman.. 02/19/2025

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