Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 18 2025 16:31:08 ACUS01 KWNS 181631 SWODY1 SPC AC 181629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ....Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ...Smith.. 02/18/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .