Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 17 2025 17:28:30 ACUS02 KWNS 171728 SWODY2 SPC AC 171727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ....Synopsis... A mid-/upper-level short-wave trough will continue digging southeastward across the Four Corners states during the day Tuesday, before arcing more eastward into the across the southern Plains overnight. As this system advances, weak/gradual surface wave development is expected along the primary baroclinic zone across Texas during the day. With time, as the wave shifts eastward to the Texas Coastal Plain by evening, a southward surge of Arctic air will occur in its wake. Overnight, this wave should continue eastward roughly along the western Gulf Coast, reaching the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi by 12Z Wednesday. By this time, the trailing cold front will likely have reached the western Gulf, with cold air penetrating south of the Rio Grande into northern Mexico. ....Southeastern Texas eastward across southern Louisiana... A broad zone of low-level theta-e advection is expected across all but western portions of the southern Plains at the start of the period, shifting gradually eastward across the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and reaching central Gulf Coast and eventually the Southeast states overnight. As the relatively warm/moist air spreads northward atop a still-cool/stable boundary layer, elevated convection is forecast to gradually increase/expand across the eastern half of the southern Plains and into Arkansas/Louisiana through the day. By late afternoon/early evening, some convection will likely have deepened sufficiently to produce some lightning, with thunderstorm coverage then increasing and spreading eastward through the overnight hours in tandem with the advance of the aforementioned surface wave. With convection largely remaining elevated, severe potential will likely be relegated to marginal hail with a few of the strongest storms, largely evolving after sunset. Potential for near-surface-based storms will remain confined to southern portions of the MRGL risk area, where gusty winds may occur with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk for a tornado will remain even more limited -- confined to coastal areas of southern Louisiana, and most likely after midnight. ...Goss.. 02/17/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .