Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 17 2025 15:21:54

FOUS30 KWBC 171521
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1021 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead an amplifying upper level
shortwave and an associated cold front are expected to draw deeper
moisture into parts of the Gulf Coast, with PWs climbing to around
1.5 inches. This moisture along with increasing lift and
instability may be sufficient for heavy rainfall rates. Models
offer a modest signal for training storms ahead of a surface low
that is forecast to develop and advance east along the coast
Wednesday morning. This may help support localized heavy rainfall,
with some potential for isolated flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

Surface low developing along the central Gulf Coast on Day 2 will
continue to track east early in the period, before tracking
northeast along the Southeast Coast later in the day. Training
storms, with potentially heavy rainfall rates fueled by deep
moisture (PWs 1.5-1.75 inches) ahead of the wave and along its
trailing cold front, may produce locally heavy amounts and an
isolated flash flooding threat on Wednesday.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oDXBeg0fQ04-FUlrSmnENB4I_3ZT9fowZzIvPK8cn32=
dVD6k2IR9r91L8PfMx7AkjqrbfwIhPxV1lzfFT4IVdGtSa0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oDXBeg0fQ04-FUlrSmnENB4I_3ZT9fowZzIvPK8cn32=
dVD6k2IR9r91L8PfMx7AkjqrbfwIhPxV1lzfFT4IrvSEUYI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5oDXBeg0fQ04-FUlrSmnENB4I_3ZT9fowZzIvPK8cn32=
dVD6k2IR9r91L8PfMx7AkjqrbfwIhPxV1lzfFT4IjDOpZvo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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