Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 19:52:36 ACUS01 KWNS 161950 SWODY1 SPC AC 161949 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ....20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ...Wendt.. 02/16/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ....Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ....North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .