Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0107
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 10:52:47

ACUS11 KWNS 161052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161052=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-161315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161052Z - 161315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are expected this morning across
parts western and central South Carolina. Weather watch issuance
remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a squall line
across parts of central Georgia extending northeastward into far
western South Carolina. The line is being supported by strong
large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and by
forcing along a fast-moving cold front. Ahead of the line,
instability is very weak, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F across
western South Carolina and northeast Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Greenville/Spartanburg has about 85 knot of 0-6 km shear with 40
to 50 knots of south-southwesterly flow located just above the
surface. An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible with the
stronger cells within the line. Given the very strong low-level
shear, meso-scale vorticies will be possible in the line with
embedded cells that remain surface-based. However, forecast
soundings in far western South Carolina have a sharp near surface
temperature inversion, which should keep any severe threat isolated
and localized.

...Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7_1RdaFE7yXC53At3NAwsc5uJ98BBoSFFO0u98-gPWhDqbkSPdPcBA1Wrs6TD4Jv8vNSM-Qsi=
lfYD30drw0RF1hAffk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   35208161 35168219 35048258 34768279 34268314 33768337
            33478343 33058296 33018208 33158120 33408066 33838035
            34298023 34458026 34728042 34848055 35088106 35208161
            35208161=20


=3D =3D =3D
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