Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 06:41:24 AWUS01 KWNH 160641 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-161230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0046 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 140 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau into central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160639Z - 161230Z SUMMARY...Despite an expected weakening trend in rainfall intensity, additional rainfall over a 2-3 hour window will impact locations of the central Appalachians hard hit on Saturday. Up to an inch of rain is expected in some locations with rates of 0.25 to 0.5 in/hr. These rains are expected to exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns. DISCUSSION...0630Z radar imagery showed that a squall line extended SSW from southern TN (between I-65 and I-24) into northwestern AL. An inflection along the line was noted over southern TN with an inferred low level vorticity max to its west. North of the inflection point, the convective line was weaker but still has had a history of producing hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch over Middle TN since 04Z. The convective line has begun to outpace many of the 00Z hires models, most notably over AL, likely not properly capturing the influence of the mesoscale vorticity max. Going forward, instability will be a limiting factor to higher rainfall rate potential across the "northern" locations of eastern KY, southern WV and western VA. However, recent hires models may be slightly downplaying rainfall rate potential from the Cumberland Plateau into the central Appalachians. Current thinking is that 0.25 to 0.50 in/hr will be possible from eastern KY into southern WV and western VA with locally higher rates farther south over eastern TN where up to a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE may be present to locally boost rainfall intensity. However, heavy rainfall duration will be limited by the progressive movement of the convective line across TN. Farther north into eastern KY, southern WV and western VA, poorer organization of the line will be somewhat offset by a longer duration of rainfall, about 2-3 hours is when a majority of the expected rainfall will fall. Portions of this region have received heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours and have ongoing/widespread significant flooding. Up to an additional inch of rain may fall across these sensitive locations which will act to exacerbate existing flooding concerns. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4tfc1TY4BPoPr3mT0SExna_-HdVTbXyjJ7Lx8pDjG2Kd9NnJHBU1PtteAsY_pIjgmpr_= j5g0qjkAmSOkRRfFrLxPxJQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38398034 38327990 37977999 37388020 36928005=20 36508149 36288219 35728344 35498470 35698554=20 36188547 36918424 37558322 37988274 38278199=20 38368112=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .