Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 04:34:27 AWUS01 KWNH 160432 FFGMPD PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-161000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0045 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1132 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...southwestern to eastern OH into western PA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160430Z - 161000Z SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions of southwestern OH into eastern OH and western PA through 10Z. Peak rainfall rates between 0.50 and 0.75 in/hr may occur but most locations should see lower rates. Still, the addition of 1-2 inches of rain over a relatively short period of time atop sensitive ground conditions may result in localized flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 04Z depicted an area of higher reflectivity moving east-northeastward into southwestern/central OH, just north of MPDs #42 and #44. While bright banding accounts for these higher reflectivity values with surface temperatures only in the 30s and 40s, ground observations have reported peak rainfall rates of about 0.25 to 0.50 inches (locally higher) to the west and north of Cincinnati within the last hour. This axis of precipitation is related to a strengthening zone of low level frontogenesis (850-700 mb), located north of an approaching surface low in KY, connected to a quasi-stationary front that extended through eastern KY into north-central WV. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z indicated less than 100 J/kg MUCAPE to the north of the front into OH. Strong divergence aloft was also present over the region, given the position of a 180+ kt upper level jet max located over MI and Lake Huron, placing OH within its favorable right-entrance region. Short term RAP forecasts indicate the surface low over KY will steadily track northeastward over the next several hours, allowing the front to lift north as a warm front through 09Z. This movement will cause the strong axis of frontogenesis to also lift north while weak MUCAPE (up to 150 J/kg or so) moves into southeastern OH and western PA between 06-09Z. Bands of heavy rain are expected within the broader precipitation shield with occasional rates as high as 0.50 to 0.75 in/hr. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to occur through 10Z from southwestern OH into eastern OH and western PA. While this region of the Midwest has escaped the ongoing significant rains and flooding to the south, soils remain sensitive with low FFG values of only 1 inch in 3 hours across the upper OH Valley. Localized flash flooding may result due to an additional 1-2 inches of rain over a fairly short period of time. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BAiGOy8kEX0Z4HBYlIicO-KDRnqegYnHBg7SBqOeCHPk2w6XUgTeWNieeac3ajxg3Uv= trfZBU7hi5iGPucbXayZgAw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41607951 41217861 40217943 39797989 39858054=20 39788209 39048425 38888491 39668496 40678319=20 41268145=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .