Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 02:04:02 AWUS01 KWNH 160202 FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-160800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0044 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 901 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160200Z - 160800Z SUMMARY...Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding will continue into the overnight hours with additional Flash Flood Emergency level impacts possible from additional rounds of heavy rainfall, with the central Appalachians continuing to see the greatest risk of this. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show an expansive area of heavy rainfall impacting areas of mainly north-central to northeast KY through central WV and down into areas of south-central VA. The activity continues to be associated with strong warm air advection which is being aided by a powerful southwest low-level jet of 40 to 60+ kts surging up through the OH/TN Valley region and into the central Appalachians. Very strong transport continues as a result which coupled with enhanced isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing continue to yield heavy rainfall rates generally in the 0.25" to 0.50"/hour range with some occasionally heavier rates where some embedded elevated convective elements focus. Some very modest instability with MUCAPE values of as much as 100 to 250 J/kg is noted over the region and this continues to favor at least some transient pockets of convection. A warm front continues to gradually lift north into the OH Valley and central Appalachians and this is allowing for the overall heavy rainfall shield to gain latitude. Going into the overnight hours, rainfall rates should still be capable of reaching a 0.50+"/hour locally and especially with the aforementioned pockets of elevated convection. Additional rains of as much as 1 to 2 inches will be possible over the next 6 hours, with areas closer to the OH River involving northeast KY and southern OH seeing potentially 2 to 3 inches given heavier rainfall approaching from western KY including some stronger pockets of even stronger convection. Given the additional rainfall and ongoing widespread focus of areal flooding and flash flooding, significant and life-threatening flash flooding is likely to continue with additional potential for Flash Flood Emergency level impacts. This will especially be the case over portions of the central Appalachians where there have already been a total of 4 Flash Flood Emergencies issued since early this afternoon. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Fg8Ag0Kz6_p6CldtRGTmShLNnTzxgtRFgJQKMCYiQiuItEFTm3kwmTWjaghChzH9c0f= cMRalbMI6zKUo33LWwfq1OI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39878106 39677973 39037917 38167920 37658001=20 37598196 37648310 37888390 38408422 39038417=20 39528328 39768232=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .