Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 01:21:39 AWUS01 KWNH 160121 FFGMPD TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-160720- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0043 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 820 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Northern LA...Central and Northern MS...Western and Northern AL...Middle TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160120Z - 160720Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be sweeping across the region over the next several hours which may produce some areas of flash flooding, with especially the more urbanized locations at risk for potential runoff problems. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows an evolving QLCS crossing through areas of eastern AR through western TN, with more broken clusters of organized convection including a few supercells down across areas of northern LA which is beginning to move into areas of western MS. The airmass downstream of the current convection is moist and moderately buoyant with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg locally and PWs of near 1.5 inches. However, a substantial amount of shear remains in place ahead of the strong shortwave and attendant frontal system crossing the Lower MS Valley. A very strong low-level jet of 50 to 60+ kts remains a key player in driving enhanced moisture/instability transport and this will sustain the convective threat well into the overnight hours as a cold front approaches and eventually crosses the region. Rainfall rates associated with the QLCS and more discrete supercell activity over the next several hours will likely reach as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour, and there may be at least some occasional cell-merger and cell-training activity that will support some locally excessive rainfall totals that may reach 2 to 4 inches. NASA SPoRT data shows antecedent soil conditions on the moist side across much of the region given the heavy rainfall that occurred a few days ago. This coupled with the locally heavy convective rains over the next several hours may pose at least some concern for areas of flash flooding. However, generally the more urbanized locations will be at greatest risk for runoff problems and impacts heading into the overnight hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dh-UctBjAzaR5XuVslTA7kCWT2U17Uy4b4tnD0KR7Ikw5OL3TSB6yB3TtpYwMlaiFlY= TmhjBMfPKLhR7eOGB3-TFn0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...MRX... OHX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36018588 35688528 34408623 32918779 31708932=20 31109076 31149210 31389265 31909290 32679249=20 33559157 34289031 35008825=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .