Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 00:46:52 AWUS01 KWNH 160046 FFGMPD OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160645- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0042 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 745 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and OH Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160045Z - 160645Z SUMMARY...Widespread flash flooding with damaging and life-threatening impacts will continue as showers and thunderstorms continue to train locally over the same area and focus heavy rainfall totals. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar shows widespread and well-organized showers and thunderstorms impacting much of the Lower MS Valley with a northeastward extension up across portions of the Mid-South and the OH Valley. Strong shortwave energy is crossing the Arklatex and will be rapidly lifting northeastward into the OH Valley overnight. As it does so, the energy will be interacting with a moist and moderately buoyant airmass continuing to surge northeastward from the Lower MS Valley. This airmass is characterized by MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs approaching 1.5 inches which is also being aided by the persistence of a powerful 50 to 60+ kt southwest low-level jet. Radar imagery shows a QLCS currently evolving from eastern AR up across western TN and western KY with some embedded supercell convection. The better thermodynamics are situated from southeast AR through northern MS and into western TN and this should provide convective sustenance through the remainder of the evening hours as the overall QLCS activity advances off to the east. While the southern flank of the overall convective footprint this evening should become increasingly progressive as a cold front arrives from the west, there will still be notable concerns for training showers and thunderstorms for several more hours farther off to the northeast in close vicinity of a warm front lifting north through the OH Valley. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms over the next several hours will still be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour with the strongest of cells. Additional rainfall amounts going through 06Z may reach as high as 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts not out of the question. Many areas have already received 2 to 4 inches of rain since early this morning, and the extremely sensitive ground conditions with saturated soils and ongoing widespread areas of flash flooding coupled with the additional rainfall, will pose concerns for potentially Flash Flood Emergency level impacts with damaging and life-threatening conditions. This situation will continue to be closely monitored. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-u7CK8MFFfh285T7L6vQEdWwmFqgQ4JozDgaBI4lhPBu2Yio0WTPIyifjGyhjkKWHNON= Qc75AzU5U893xOknW4FalYw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH... RLX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38918407 38398319 37498313 36788408 36358516=20 35508719 34558970 34249121 34669174 35549119=20 36728984 37428858 38068736 38868545=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .