Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 15 2025 19:50:41 AWUS01 KWNH 151947 FFGMPD VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-160145- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0041 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the OH/TN Valleys and Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 151945Z - 160145Z SUMMARY...Locally significant flash flooding is expected going into the evening hours from persistent heavy rainfall over saturated soils. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar shows an expansive area of heavy rain continuing to advance west to east across central and eastern KY and into southwest VA and southern WV. The activity continues to be associated with strong warm air advection which is being aided by a powerful southwest low-level jet of 40 to 60+ kts overrunning a strong frontal zone. This is driving very strong moisture transport with magnitudes in the SFC/850 mb layer of as much as 320 kg/m/s aiming across much of western and central TN and toward southern KY as seen in the experimental CIRA-LVT (Layered Vapor Transport) imagery. Some very modest instability with MUCAPE values of as much as 100 to 250 J/kg is noted over the region and this has been supporting some occasional elevated convective elements. Over the next several hours heading into the evening, there will continue to be a west to east axis of heavy rainfall given the level of strong isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing, but as a warm front lifts north with time, this band of heavy rainfall should also gain latitude with the rain eventually getting into more of north-central to northeast KY and central WV. The rainfall rates should be able to at least occasionally reach into the 0.50" to 0.75"/hour range, and especially with any stronger convective elements that continue to materialize. These rates and overall persistence of heavy rainfall should support additional rainfall totals by early this evening of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. Many areas have ongoing areal flooding and flash flooding, and with extremely sensitive/saturated soil conditions and very high streamflows, much of the additional rainfall will lead to immediate runoff and potentially support significant flash flooding for some locations. This will include areas of the central Appalachians for locations that currently also have a melting snowpack and thus added water runoff concerns. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_x0dK2JV4HgGIM65ux75coVlDb0zP0EKlMSOCYp6OUxNID4h2UFh_3Lze1FX9vfrroeP= NMzW9UPAY6yLbhgB4ivmMHs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38868096 38507991 38007962 37197993 36698093=20 36348411 36568591 37358642 37988611 38578432=20 38848255=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .