Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 15 2025 09:31:35

ACUS48 KWNS 150931
SWOD48
SPC AC 150930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the
southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm
potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front
as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf
moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late
afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests
convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and
convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front.
Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time,
though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks.

An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed,
resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the
period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue.

...Leitman.. 02/15/2025

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