Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 15 2025 00:40:07

ACUS01 KWNS 150038
SWODY1
SPC AC 150037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the southern Great Basin into the central High Plains. More
widespread weak thunderstorm activity is likely across Arkansas into
the lower Ohio Valley this evening and overnight.

....01z Update...

Strong mid-level jet is digging southeast across the lower CO River
Valley toward northern Mexico. Cooling/steepening profiles, north of
this jet, have resulted in a fairly large area of at least weak
buoyancy from the Four Corners region into southern WY. As a result,
isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms are currently noted, largely
aided by diurnal heating. Additionally, weak convection over the
central High Plains has recently attained heights necessary for
lightning discharge, immediately ahead of the surging cold front.
Have adjusted thunder probabilities to account for lightning with
this activity for the next several hours.

Downstream, low-level warm/moist advection is contributing to
increasing elevated instability across east TX into the lower MS
Valley. Parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will gradually become more
unstable overnight, likely exhibiting more than 500 J/kg MUCAPE, and
more than adequate for lightning.

...Darrow.. 02/15/2025

$$

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