Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 14 2025 08:17:58

ACUS03 KWNS 140817
SWODY3
SPC AC 140816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late
morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic.

....Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic...

An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface,
a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the
Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time
frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL
Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and
southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates
are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest
instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for
strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning.
While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across
FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of
the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be
sufficient for some organized convection.

While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally
poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should
support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As
such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of
the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity.
Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the
period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some
adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be
necessary.

...Leitman.. 02/14/2025

$$

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