Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 14 2025 05:43:28

ACUS01 KWNS 140543
SWODY1
SPC AC 140541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

....Synopsis...
A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying
upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern
Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and
southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this
afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while
thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the
Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley.

....Ozarks/Mid-South...
Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will
reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and
east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust
elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their
LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb)
becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could
reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in
the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be
overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy.

While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am
CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western
Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally
remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic
environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected
to remain below 5 percent.

...Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025

$$

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