Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 13 2025 17:48:26 ACUS02 KWNS 131748 SWODY2 SPC AC 131722 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ....Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ....Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ....Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ...15_ows.. 02/13/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .