Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 13 2025 09:40:11

ACUS48 KWNS 130938
SWOD48
SPC AC 130937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina...
Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the
Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an
eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected
to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear
how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available
forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and
subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture
return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection.
Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given
the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld.

Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are
generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential
through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at
a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf
mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far
too uncertain this far in advance.

...Wendt.. 02/13/2025

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