Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 13 2025 08:17:57 AWUS01 KWNH 130817 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-131345- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0034 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...FL Panhandle into southeastern AL and central GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 130815Z - 131345Z SUMMARY...A low probability threat for flash flooding due to training will exist from the FL Panhandle into southeastern AL and central GA through ~13Z. The threat will carry the potential for rainfall rates in the 1-2 in/hr range within any areas of training. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08Z showed that a SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms extended from the western FL Panhandle into north-central GA. These thunderstorms were located out ahead of a cold front and trends over the past few hours have shown a weakening of the portion of the line over southwestern AL in favor of strengthening of a new line out ahead, which was currently crossing the western FL Panhandle. Recent infrared satellite/radar trends through 08Z showed yet another line beginning to organize about ahead of the existing convective axis, ~85 miles south of Mobile Bay. The environment within the warm sector was characterized by 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE from the warm frontal position along the AL/GA border to just south of the Gulf Coast along the FL Panhandle. Flash flood guidance was lowest to the north (2-3 inches in 3 hours) and highest in western FL (4+ inches in 3 hours). The greatest potential for high rainfall rates, near or even in excess of 2 in/hr, will exist within the better instability across southern locations. Water vapor imagery showed a longwave trough over the central U.S. advancing east, but with the base of the trough lifting north, from OK to the MS Valley. This deamplification along the southern end of the upper trough favors a gradual weakening trend of 850 mb wind magnitude and of convective intensity over the AL/GA/FL tri-state region. However, lingering instability and sufficient low level moisture transport could allow for training if the convective axis to the south continues to expand north and meets with the ongoing northern portion advancing to the east at a somewhat faster pace. While the general movement should be a progressive eastward movement at 25-30 kt, There is a low end chance that alignment of the heavy rain axis/axes will allow for a brief period of training, which could contain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, and local 2-3 inches of rain over a 2 to 3 hour window. Localized flash flooding could result, but again, this threat appears to be fairly low and recent CAM guidance does not support much in the way of a flash flood threat over the next 3-5 hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7s8IP4xI0b1AYsqAUAimeiOmfPECkOXtCWqYtuKrqVX6k26DOppC74qbJEl_8Iojm-yn= PIyiCfeNtY13adK3mY0lnso$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33618302 33498228 33078167 32528146 31768171=20 30898320 30198408 29568500 30128734 31088690=20 32538513 33028448 33508380=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .