Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 13 2025 02:21:54 AWUS01 KWNH 130221 FFGMPD NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130820- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0032 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 920 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Eastern LA...Southern MS...Much of AL...Southeast TN...Northern GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 130220Z - 130820Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the South overnight with concerns for high rainfall rates and cell-training. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely which will include the more sensitive urban corridors. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to show a well-organized convective outbreak evolving across the South with multiple bands of strong to severe convection, including supercells, that are focusing corridors of locally enhanced rainfall. A strong southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts continues to advance up across eastern LA through southern MS, with it nosing up into areas of western and central AL. This is fostering strong moisture transport along with the arrival of a moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Strong low to mid-level veering flow with height continues to yield enhanced shear profiles favorable for supercells and these more organized storms out ahead of an approaching cold front and in vicinity of a warm front lifting northeast across the Southeast have been tending to locally train over the same location this evening. Over the next few hours, areas of southern MS through central AL in particular will continue to see cell-training and cell-merger concerns as the convection attempts to evolve a bit more into a QLCS which will still include embedded supercell concerns. By late this evening and going well past midnight, areas of northwest GA will begin to see more of the concentration of heavier convective rainfall. The evening CAM guidance, including the HRRR and the experimental WoFS supports an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated heavier amounts possible where the corridors of more organized cell-training occurs, and this will be aided by rainfall rates of generally 1 to 2+ inches/hour. Some areas of flash flooding are already occurring, and the additional rains over the next several hours should yield additional areas of flash flooding. This will include especially the more sensitive urban areas, which by later in the night may include the Atlanta metropolitan area. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3fNJtQJjYRscRkNcMOzrGhXFAUr56rJ10qzqoCtWZNkR97j4WNaN_fsQhuz9NB-qHqL= UURXVMq2s7XddsY3-NVIKYs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...MRX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35448488 35208370 34498325 33368365 31778605=20 30328893 29919032 30629034 32228877 33658741=20 34978636=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .