Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0089
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 12 2025 20:29:45

ACUS11 KWNS 122029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122029=20
OHZ000-INZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 122029Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread
eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio over the next several hours.
Freezing rain rates up to 0.03-0.05 inch/hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation associated with the warm advection branch
of a deepening mid-level wave is beginning to overspread parts of
central to eastern IN and southwest OH where surface temperatures
remain near or below freezing. Recent upper-air analysis and
forecast soundings show a weak warm layer aloft at around 850 mb
atop of sub-freezing surface temperatures that should support some
melting/re-freezing of hydrometeors. The weak warm nose will likely
initially support a mix of sleet and freezing rain within a narrow
swath from eastern IN into west/northwest OH where there is
favorable overlap of sub-freezing surface temperatures and warm
temperatures aloft. With time, continued warming near the 850 mb
level should promote a gradual transition to primarily freezing rain
through late afternoon/early evening. Freezing rain rates between
0.02 to 0.05 in/hour appear probable based on recent high-res
guidance that has captured surface temperature trends well.

...Moore.. 02/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_PrY-clrqMAMN_1ltzmsfePI00XdSc_ctVxjqUbuG18kme2hUUYVnVA4KkkT7Hs3rnitxXz1o=
Krug6rJhlMIh3uJzL4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40958148 40708156 40588177 40518214 40398297 40268354
            40108408 39918451 39808490 39798545 39888585 40048604
            40408605 40808569 41268487 41428415 41508361 41478294
            41428237 41318194 41118162 40958148=20


=3D =3D =3D
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