Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 12 2025 17:10:15 ACUS02 KWNS 121706 SWODY2 SPC AC 121705 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ....Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ....Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ....Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ...Bentley.. 02/12/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .