Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 11 2025 17:34:35 ACUS02 KWNS 111734 SWODY2 SPC AC 111732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ....Synopsis... A broad trough with multiple embedded mid-level vorticity maxima will become more consolidated with a 125 knot mid-level jet streak over the Lower Ohio River Valley by 12Z Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move along a frontal zone from West Texas to the Ohio Valley and then deepen into the eastern Great Lakes between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. A broad warm sector will be in place along the Gulf Coast states and will attempt to progress inland, but extensive precipitation within a warm air advection zone from northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will stunt its northward progress. ....Southeast... There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better instability. An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3 F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has been expanded south and east to address this concern. ...Bentley.. 02/11/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .