Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 10 2025 19:59:27

ACUS01 KWNS 101959
SWODY1
SPC AC 101957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor
adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing
across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers
ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification
of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over
the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was
expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder
potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains
low. See the prior outlook for additional info.

...Lyons.. 02/10/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/

....Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with
gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West,
Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing
warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal
zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across
south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more
broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across
North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear
will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild
mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in
the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with
this elevated convection.

$$

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