Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 10 2025 17:11:27 ACUS02 KWNS 101711 SWODY2 SPC AC 101709 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ....Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ...Leitman.. 02/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .