Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 10 2025 09:39:32

ACUS48 KWNS 100939
SWOD48
SPC AC 100937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast
as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the
next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi
Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday.
Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both
days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the
Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For
Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide
will minimize severe risk.

....Southeast...
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough
to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a
deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move
into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return
into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into
Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South.
This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the
Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both
low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The
surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but
the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped
boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of
the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the
timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of
sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and
ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday.
Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data
becomes available.

....Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic...
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on
Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms
from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not
clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the
diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.

...Wendt.. 02/10/2025

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