Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 09 2025 17:02:31

ACUS02 KWNS 091702
SWODY2
SPC AC 091700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast
Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday.

....Southern Plains...

Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday.
As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and
northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region
during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective
development.

At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some
northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast
guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the
boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period.
Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to
the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary
into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some
cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest
elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE)
overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm
advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday
night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to
remain low given poor thermodynamics.

...Leitman.. 02/09/2025

$$

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