Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 09 2025 05:36:15

ACUS01 KWNS 090536
SWODY1
SPC AC 090534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.

....Mid-South Region...

Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today
as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle
Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant
continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country,
forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf
States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery
suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across
southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb
by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM
soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500
J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent
should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist
uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a
corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in
the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then
weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep
updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally
expected to remain around 10 percent.

...Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025

$$

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