Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 09 2025 02:06:44

AWUS01 KWNH 090206
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-090804-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EST Sat Feb 08 2025

Areas affected...southern West Virginia, far eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090204Z - 090804Z

Summary...Fast-moving showers could produce a quick 0.25 inch of
rainfall across the discussion area through 05-06Z. Extremely
sensitive ground conditions suggest potential for
efficient/excessive runoff and impacts during this timeframe.

Discussion...Forcing/ascent along and ahead of a cold front has
aided in development of a couple bands of convection extending
from Parkersburg to Huntington to Somerset, KY.  These showers
were in a marginal environment in terms of instability, although
~100 J/kg MUCAPE appears to support updrafts along and ahead of
the front.  Quick movement (from 70 kt mean steering flow) has
limited rain rates so far, although recent MRMS data suggests
pockets of 0.1-0.2 inch/hr rates near Jackson, KY over the past
hour.

These showers will move toward portions of the discussion area
that are extremely sensitive to any additional rainfall.  NASA
SPORT soil moisture values are near 100% across the area amid
plenty of antecedent rainfall (including 1-1.5 inch totals in the
past 24 hours).  FFG thresholds generally range from 0.25-0.5
inch/hr, but are near zero in a few spots.  Several impacts were
also reported this from this morning's round of rainfall.=20
Incoming rainfall along/ahead of the front may result in an uptick
in excessive runoff and flood potential through 07Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6CEl1e3dRVBZoJxLJsa61bKoSMJFD78rTxWcNS0IlUX6QYExwTPlGoyKjjoYiqi6dcik=
Vqkxvao6vBmbl3PUftyaBpo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39258120 39198015 38957938 38497951 37768007=20
            37438073 37308138 37478217 38198265 38988194=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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