Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 08 2025 16:35:10

ACUS01 KWNS 081635
SWODY1
SPC AC 081633

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible.

....Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau...
The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying
and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi
Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is
expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the
lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a
preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending
cold front.

Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to
cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent
inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures
aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer
calculated inhibition becomes negligible.

Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough
will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and
semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a
marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of
lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective
structures potentially capable of lightning production by late
afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some
convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very
strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt
winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe,
could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the
warm front.

...Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025

$$

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