Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 08 2025 09:48:08

ACUS48 KWNS 080948
SWOD48
SPC AC 080946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of
next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central
Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast
will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe
storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger
forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly
parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more
widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the
Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but
the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and
the warm sector will likely be narrow.

By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf
Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move
eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air
intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the
trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible
during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as
models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past
1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored.

...Wendt.. 02/08/2025

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