Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 08 2025 05:33:08

ACUS01 KWNS 080533
SWODY1
SPC AC 080531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today.

....Ohio Valley...

An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the
Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in
response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from
the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by
09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into
PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such
that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse
rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between
1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable
of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated
activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level
warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the
approaching short wave.

...Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025

$$

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