Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 07 2025 19:11:49

FOUS30 KWBC 071911
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Feb 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill/Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025

West Virginia...
An approaching frontal wave is expected to bring precipitable water
values up above an inch into WV. While 1000-500 hPa thickness
values are higher when compared to Thursday's rainfall farther
south, implying slightly less atmospheric saturation, the=20
combination of 50+ kts of 850 hPa inflow into WV along with ~100=20
J/kg of CAPE and the forecast precipitable water values should be=20
sufficient for hourly rain totals of 0.5"+, even though this is not
advertised in the 12z HREF. The three hour flash flood guidance=20
values are so low (around 1") that those values could be exceeded=20
with two hours of such rains. Since soils there are saturated, and=20
the terrain is rugged, opted to add a Marginal Risk area for much=20
of WV (outside of its northern or eastern Panhandles) in=20
coordination with the Charleston WV forecast office. This also=20
helps support their and Blacksburg VA's new flood watch.

Roth



Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UMz4AYvTejp91PnIK_8qvZtWnv5ULTQKW95D8O_rchS=
Ww37ihkDJBeAkYqd0Kv0vCwhGTYzqA95_XGxExuk8yJDBLE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UMz4AYvTejp91PnIK_8qvZtWnv5ULTQKW95D8O_rchS=
Ww37ihkDJBeAkYqd0Kv0vCwhGTYzqA95_XGxExukslJIhoY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-UMz4AYvTejp91PnIK_8qvZtWnv5ULTQKW95D8O_rchS=
Ww37ihkDJBeAkYqd0Kv0vCwhGTYzqA95_XGxExuk5cT6mEE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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